Construction of the Multiple Autoregression Model Based on the Demand Factors

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  • 需要要因を考慮した統合予測モデルの構築
  • ジュヨウ ヨウイン オ コウリョ シタ トウゴウ ヨソク モデル ノ コウチク

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This multiple autoregression model, named the Synthesis Forecasting Model, is constructed with two models : multiple regression and autoregression. The autoregression model is only based on numerical data ; However, in order to improve forecasting precision, it is necessary to be considered qualitative demand factor, such as customer satisfaction, market environment, and factory condition, affecting total demand. the Synthesis Forecasting Model can represent these factor weights and forecast as time series by synthesizing with autoregression, This proposed model is evaluated by coefficient of determination, f-test, AIC and residual test, and it is applied to the forecasting of sales quantities of MD radio casette player of an audio equipment maker. As a result of this application, it is clarified that the proposed model is an improvement over regular autoregression models and that Availability for actual data can be shown.

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