Estimation of Population Affected by City Gas Supply Disruption Using Seismic Functional Fragility Function

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  • 機能的フラジリティ関数による都市ガスの地震時供給停止人口の推計
  • キノウテキ フラジリティ カンスウ ニ ヨル トシ ガス ノ ジシンジ キョウキュウ テイシ ジンコウ ノ スイケイ

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Abstract

For the purpose of estimation of population affected by city gas supply disruption in an earthquake disaster, vulnerability factor of low-pressure gas pipelines is defined on the basis of non-earthquake resistant ratio. A functional fragility function in terms of shaking intensity is defined as a logit model with 50% exceedance level at SI=65kine considering the vulnerability factor and standard gas shutoff criteria. A grid cell dataset on population served by city gas supply is also developed based on penetration ratio inside/outside of DID. Observed and estimated population of disruption are compared for three major earthquake disasters during 2004-2011. Precision of estimation is approximately within a factor of two except for some extreme cases.

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