DECISION SUPPORT MODEL FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT BASED ON SEQUENTIAL DATA PROCESSING OF DAMAGE INFORMATION

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  • 被害情報の逐次処理による地震時緊急対応の意思決定支援モデル
  • ヒガイ ジョウホウ ノ チクジ ショリ ニ ヨル ジシンジ キンキュウ タイオウ ノ イシ ケッテイ シエン モデル

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Abstract

This study presents a method of sequential data processing of seismic damage information for rapid and appropriate decision making in post-earthquake emergency management. First, a real-time estimation of damage rate is conducted using seismic intensity information and fragility relations, providing a prior distribution of damage rate. Next, according to reported damage information, the distribution of damage rate is updated using Bayesian approach in a sequential manner. A technique of SPRT (sequential probability ratio test) is then applied to judge when to make a decision of emergency response. Numerical examples are shown using hypothetical and existing lifeline systems.

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