非定常な地震の発生を考慮した地震危険度解析

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タイトル別名
  • SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS BASED ON THE NONSTATIONARY OCCURRENCE OF EARTHQUAKES
  • ヒテイジョウ ナ ジシン ノ ハッセイ オ コウリョシタ ジシン キケンド カ

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説明

Most seismic hazard analyses have been based on the stationary Poisson process for earthquake occurrences. However, it is more appropriate to assume nonstationary earthquake occurrences for estimating a seismic hazard in a short period. A model based on the time predictable model in area seismic sources and the Semi-Markov process for describing nonstationary occurrence of earthquakes is developed. The probability distribution of the maximum ground motion intensity in t years is calculated by the magnitude distribution obtained by the Semi-Markov process, the spatial probability of occurrence of earthquakes and the attenuation curve. The observed data of earthquakes in seven area sources in and near Japan show the time predictable model is adequate even in the small region such as one degree square in latitude and longitude. Those data show the scale, parameter of Weibull distribution applied to time intervals of earthquakes is about 1.5. The estimates of the maximum magnitude of earthquakes on an area seismic zone with the Poisson model are overestimated after a great earthquake has occurred, but are underestimated by about 5% after a seismic gap or after a small earthquake has occurred. The estimates of the maximum peak ground acceleration on an area seismic zone based on the Poisson model underestimates by about 10% after a long seismic gap. As an illustration of more realistic model, the seismic hazard analysis of a site in the Kanto district is presented.

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