Probabilistic flood forecasting utilizing ensemble prediction system applied for 2015 Kinugawa flood event.

DOI

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 領域アンサンブル予報を利用した洪水予測手法の2015年鬼怒川洪水への適用

Abstract

Torrential rainfall frequently occurred resulted in flood disaster in recent years. To prevent flood disaster, we are developing flood forecasting system with leadtime of more than 12 hours. We utilize regional ensemble prediction system to account for uncertainty of prediction. The obtained precipitation is given to a hydrological model, Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation model, to simulate river discharge. We applied this system to the 2015 Kinugawa flood event and examined their forecast skill. We examined four different initial times, in forecast time (FT) of 30h, 24h, 18h, and 12h. The discharge forecast results showed better forecast skill as decreasing leadtime. Also, at least some ensemble members predicted observed discharge peak in every point, except for FT=24h. We examined flood forecasts using rainfall forecasts from JMA operational MSM. They failed to forecast in most of the cases, however. We confirmed that the ensemble flood forecasting system could provide useful probability information of the flood.<br><br>

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Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390282680689168128
  • NII Article ID
    130005176101
  • DOI
    10.11520/jshwr.29.0_43
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
    • CiNii Articles
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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