Construction, Evaluation, and Implementation of a Formula Predicting a Patient's Fall Risk Based on a Historical Cohort Study using Electronic Medical Records (EMR) Data

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  • Yokota S
    Department of Planning, Information and Management, the University of Tokyo Hospital
  • Endo M
    Department of Nursing, the University of Tokyo Hospital
  • Hiramatsu T
    Department of Health Management and Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, the University of Tokyo
  • Noguchi T
    Department of Planning, Information and Management, the University of Tokyo Hospital
  • Miyo K
    Department of Medical Informatics and Economics, Graduate School of Medicine, the University of Tokyo
  • Ohe K
    Department of Medical Informatics and Economics, Graduate School of Medicine, the University of Tokyo

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  • 電子カルテデータを利用した後ろ向きコホートによる患者転倒リスク予測式の構築・評価・実装手法

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In order to devise a method for predicting a patient's fall risk in clinical practice, we have created the technique for construction of a fall risk prediction formula (TCFP) which outlines a prediction formula based on a retrospective cohort study which analyzed data from electronic medical records (EMR), and implements script execution functions of the EMR. No additional burden was placed on patients or staff, and data regarding 10,000 patients were collected and analyzed. The sensitivity of our prediction formula was 73.6% and its specificity was 68.8%. Prediction accuracy was no lower than previous studies in Japan. Because the EMR packages of a leading vendor have a script execution function, similar implementations can be made on such EMR packages. As a result, we consider TCFP to be an applicable technique in other medical institutions.

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