Future Prediction for Areas Suitable for Double Cropping of Corn (<i>Zea mays</i> L.) Production in Japan’s Kanto Region Based on the Latest Simulated Data

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  • 最新の気象予測データに基づく関東地域におけるトウモロコシ（<i>Zea mays</i> L.）二期作適地の変化予測
  • 最新の気象予測データに基づく関東地域におけるトウモロコシ(Zea mays L.)二期作適地の変化予測
  • サイシン ノ キショウ ヨソク データ ニ モトズク カントウ チイキ ニ オケル トウモロコシ(Zea mays L.)ニキサク テキチ ノ ヘンカ ヨソク

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Abstract

<p>The future situation of double cropping (DC) of corn (Zea mays L.) in Japan’s Kanto region was predicted based on the data simulated with the MRI-CGCM3 climate model and representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Annual effective cumulative temperatures (ECT, 10°C basis) in 2040 and 2090 were calculated for every third grid square (approximately 1 km×1 km) of the Kanto region, as a mean value between 2031 and 2050, and between 2081 and 2100, respectively. The areas suitable for corn DC were distinguished as two types of areas : one was the area in which ECT was higher than 2,300°C and corn DC was possible. The other was the area in which ECT was higher than 2,530°Cand high quality forage of which the dry matter ratio would be higher than 30% could be produced both in the first and the second cropping. It was predicted that, until 2040, the areas in which ECT values exceeded 2,300°C would expand to the central parts of the Kanto region (south areas of Tochigi Prefecture and Ibaraki Prefecture), and that, until 2090, the areas in which ECT values exceeded 2,530°C would expand to the central parts of the region.</p>

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