The technique of calculating the winning percentage in baseball games with runners' advancement statistics(Practice)

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  • 野球における走者の進塁状況を考慮した勝率計算方法(実用)
  • 野球における走者の進塁状況を考慮した勝率計算方法
  • ヤキュウ ニ オケル ソウシャ ノ シンルイ ジョウキョウ オ コウリョシタ ショウリツ ケイサン ホウホウ

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In this paper, we propose a method to calculate winning percentages in baseball games. In conventional methods the probabilities derived from batting statistics are applied to Markov chain with the D'Esopo and Lefkowitz runner advancement model in order to calculate the percentage. The proposed method calculates the percentage by analyzing not only batting statistics but also runners' advancement statistics. The experimental results show that the percentage calculated by the proposed method is closer to the actual results compared to the conventional methods. In addition, we evaluate the effect of batting statistics and runners' statistics on the winning percentage.

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