The Relationship between Consumer Sentiment and Consumption in Japan

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  • 我が国における消費者心理と消費行動の関係
  • ワガクニ ニ オケル ショウヒシャ シンリ ト ショウヒ コウドウ ノ カンケイ

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Abstract

In this paper, I discuss the relationship between consumer sentiment and the economy in Japan. Using the Cabinet Office (herein CSI), CSI (TKO) (for Tokyo) consumers' confidence index and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc. Nikkei Consumption Forecasting Indicator (herein CFI) by the Research Institute of Industry and Regional Economy. We found many interesting evidences between the consumer sentiment and economy outlined below; 1)CSI and CSI (TKO) change precedently to the CFI, 2) In the whole country consumption expenditure change follows disposable income change, however in Tokyo such a relation was not found, 3) In regard to the influence ability to the consumption expenditure, the consumer confidence influences the consumption expenditure even when disposable income is controlled. 4) The productive-age population and Tokyo Stock Exchange share prices influence the consumption expenditure in Japan and Tokyo, respectively, 5) The influence ability of the consumer confidence indicator on consumption expenditure is different in Tokyo from that of the whole country. In Tokyo only "Durable goods" indicator showed the relationship to consumption expenditure, however whole country "Overall livelihood" and "Income growth" are effective additionally. It is confirmed that the consumer sentiment influences consumption actions in Japan, (it has become clear that a willingness of the consumers, the consumer sentiment, influences changes of the economy.)

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