An application of the hydrologic model HYDROTREND to the paleo-Tonegawa: numerical estimates of sediment discharge for the last 13,000 years

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  • 水文学的モデルHYDROTRENDによる過去13,000年間の古利根川砕屑物供給量の推定
  • スイモンガクテキ モデル HYDROTREND ニ ヨル カコ 13 000ネンカン ノ フルトネガワ サイセツブツ キョウキュウリョウ ノ スイテイ

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HYDROTREND, the hydrologic model suggested by Syvitski and his colleagues, is applied to the paleo-Tonegawa to reconstruct sediment discharge to the Kanto Plain and Tokyo Bay area for the last 13,000 years. HYDROTREND provides a numerical simulation of water and sediment discharges of modern and ancient rivers, on the assumption of climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. The model is applied (1) first to the modern Tonegawa with measured precipitation and temperature as inputs, to determine values and coefficients of the involved variables, (2) second to verify the model applicability using data obtained from modern hydrologic conditions, and (3) third to the paleo-Tonegawa with changing climate and sea level conditions of the past. The numerical results, after a calibration of the local factor of snowmelt, show an agreement with the measured discharge in dam-free, mountainous part of the uppermost drainage. The predicted discharge for the whole basin is comparable to the observations as well. The predicted sediment supply, where effects of changes in annual average temperature, annual precipitation and drainage area were taken into account, agrees with the estimates from the measured data obtained from the area. In the predictions, sediment discharge is relatively stable through 13,000 years, because increase in sediment supply at high temperature compensates decrease in drainage area during the 7.000 - 0 yrBP higher sea level period. The results indicate that daily precipitation controls sediment discharge more effectively than the Holocene climate change. The maximum daily sediment load reaches 10 times of the annual mean. The paleo-Tonegawa is most likely to produce hyperpycnal with a recurrence interval of hundreds of years during the 7,000 - 0 yrBP sea level highstand. The present study supports the actual applicability of HYDROTREND to Japanese river systems of the past.<br>

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