Bayesian Estimation of Leak Frequency for Organic Hydride Hydrogen Refueling Stations

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  • <b>有機ハイドライド型水素ステーションの漏洩頻度のベイズ推定 </b>
  • 有機ハイドライド型水素ステーションの漏洩頻度のベイズ推定
  • ユウキ ハイドライドガタ スイソ ステーション ノ ロウエイ ヒンド ノ ベイズ スイテイ

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Abstract

<p>In the recent years, fuel-cell-driven vehicles and hydrogen refueling stations are emerging towards the large-scale use of hydrogen. Organic hydrides such as methylcyclohexane （MCH） can be used as hydrogen energy carriers, the introduction of organic hydride hydrogen refueling stations using MCH （MCH hydrogen refueling stations） is being considered. In this report, we investigated a method to estimate the leak frequency using a hierarchical Bayesian model, which can be applied for a quantitative risk assessment of MCH hydrogen refueling stations. The hierarchical Bayesian model was based on a model reported by Sandia National Laboratories. Using Bayesian updating, the estimation results from the Sandia National Laboratories study were used as the prior distribution, which was then updated by incorporating the domestic leak frequency. Consequently, the estimated leak frequency and credible intervals applicable to quantitative risk assessment have been obtained.</p>

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