On the model to estimate soil volume of landslides caused by heavy rain

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  • 豪雨による崩壊土砂量推定のためのモデルについて
  • ゴウウ ニ ヨル ホウカイ ドシャリョウ スイテイ ノ タメ ノ モデル ニ ツイテ

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The model experiment was tried to estimate the soil volume of the landslide by the heavy rain. The model is based on the thought that the landslides break out on the places where many kinds of cause work concentratedly by accident. The way of experiment is the utilization of the Monte Carlo Method, as follows:<br> 1. A square of 10cm×10cm on the section paper is taken as the river basin and this square contains 100 unit square elements of 1cm×1cm.<br> 2. The values p1, p2 and p3, are decided adequately; p1, and p2 are due to the geologic and the geomorphological cause as the primary cause and p3 is due to the precipitation per hour as the motive cause.<br> 3. The unit elements are marked with dots at random by using the table of random numbers according to the above-stated values. The operation of p3 is repeated as many times as the continuative hours of the rainfall.<br> 4. If Nc is decided from the qualities of the watershed, the landslide break out at the unit element where N, the number of dots in an unit element are more than Nc and N-Nc is related to enlarge the scale of the landslide.<br> As the result of this model experiment by substituting the adequate value into p1, p2, p3 and Nc, it is confirmed that the number of landslides can be approximated to the quadratic function of the continuative precipitation, and the distribution of the probability density on the number of landslides is linear on the semi-log paper.<br> After adequate treatments on the model, this model is useful to actual watershed simulated by electronic computer.

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