Studies on Post-Operative Survival Rate of Gastric Cancer

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  • 胃癌手術患者の生存率曲線に関する研究
  • イガン シュジュツ カンジャ ノ セイゾンリツ キョクセン ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

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Fifteen years post-operative survival rate of gastric cancer cases for each metastasis, positive and negative at time of operation as reported by Masao Muto, professor of surgery at Tohoku University has been analysed.<br>The results are as follows:<br>1) Each 15 year survival rate curve for metastasis positive and negative in sem-logarithm scale is composed of two linear lines with the gradient of line 0.013 and 0.504 respectively.<br>2) From the above results, the author has devised a model that the patients treated by operation are classified into the three stages, that is healthy group (S1), possible relapse group (S2) and relapse group (S3), and that S1 and S2 is transferable each other but S3 is transfered from S2.<br>The instantaneous transition probabilities of S1→S2 and S2→S1 are 0.015 and 0.072 respectively. and the force of mortality of cancer S2→S3 is 0.430.<br>3) Using the above model, the survival rate of each stage is calculated as follows:<br>In metastasis negative group the survival rate curve of healthy group (S1) is S1=12.262e-0.013t-0.897e-0.504t and, the survival rate curve of possible relapse group (S2) is S2=0.341e-0.013t+6.094e-0.504t, Also, in metastasis positive group, the survival rate curve of healthy group (S1) is S1=12.065e-0.013t-12.052e-0.504t and the survival rate curve of possible relapse group (S2) is S2=0.335e-0.013t+81.852e-0.504t.<br>4) The rate of metastasis negative at time of operation is 11.4%, and the cure rate of the metastasis positive group is 10.0%.<br>Thus it seems that the cure rate of the operative treatment for gastric cancer is about 20.0%.

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