Estimation of Fish Mortality Rates with a Change-point from Tag Recoveries.

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  • 変化点を持つ放流魚の死亡係数の推定
  • ヘンカテン オ モツ ホウリュウギョ ノ シボウ ケイスウ ノ スイテイ

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Abstract

This study deals with the problem of a change-point alternative in the estimation of fishing and natural mortality rates from tag recoveries. We consider some models of mortality rates, and estimate parameters by a maximum likelihood procedure. Taking the overdispersion of the recovery data into account, we employ the likelihood function of a normal approximation of Dirichlet compound multinomial distribution. In a case study of red sea bream Pagrus major in the Seto Inland Sea, we could not detect the change-point of the natural mortality rate. It was suggested that fluctuation in the recovery data substantially influenced the estimation of the changepoint mortality rates.

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