1988年鹿児島県種子島における牛流行熱発生の理論疫学

DOI Web Site Web Site PubMed 被引用文献1件

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Theoretical Epidemiology on Bovine Ephemeral Fever Outbreaks in Tanegashima Island, Kagoshima Prefecture of Japan in 1988.
  • 1988年鹿児島県種子島における牛流行熱発生の理論疫学〔英文〕
  • 1988ネン カゴシマケン タネガシマ ニ オケル ウシ リュウコウ ネツ ハ

この論文をさがす

抄録

From the end of September to November 1988, a compact scale of bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) outbreaks occurred suddenly in Tanegashima island of Kagoshima Prefecture, southern part of Kyusyu island of Japan. The BEF outbreak pattern showed epidemical characteristics as follows; (1) outbreak spread from few foci to zone during one month, and (2) the disease might be transmitted in farms with a fixed probability of adequate contact. By using the above aspects, we attempted to analyze the disease theoretically with the application of Poisson distribution and Reed-Frost model. The BEF incidence in farms was in well accord with the Poisson distribution. As the very rare event occurred in unit time or in unit area in this epidemic, the cattle population at risk were equivalently susceptible to BEF virus in this island, due to the influence of no vaccination to BEF control before the first outbreak. Similarly, the epidemic curve of the Reed-Frost model was proved to fit well the incidence observed in a farm, and the probability of adequate contact was induced as p=0.226. If the cattle population is less than 5 in this farm, the outbreak would not occur in the first instance.

収録刊行物

被引用文献 (1)*注記

もっと見る

キーワード

詳細情報 詳細情報について

問題の指摘

ページトップへ