メッシュ気候値2000による温暖化時の最大積雪深予測値の検証

  • 井上 聡
    独立行政法人 農業環境技術研究所
  • 川島 茂人
    独立行政法人 農業環境技術研究所
  • 横山 宏太郎
    独立行政法人 農業・生物系特定産業技術研究機構中央農業総合研究センター北陸研究センター

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Validation of the predicted maximum snow depth under global warming by using Mesh Climate Data 2000.
  • メッシュ キコウチ 2000 ニ ヨル オンダンカジ ノ サイダイ セキセツシンヨソクチ ノ ケンショウ

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抄録

The maximum snow depth in Japan under global warming conditions was predicted by the authors, and it was verified by using the values of maximum snow depth provided in Mesh Climate Data 2000 (MCD2000) compiled by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for reference. The predicted mesh data of maximum snow depth was estimated from the monthly mean air temperature and monthly precipitation, spatially interpolated from the decadal output of five general circulation models for the present condition to that in the 2090s. The data was in a grid format, and more than 4000 grids were used to cover Japan. Therefore, the similarity between pairs of data sets was evaluated by using the mean error and the root mean square error calculated from the residual between the corresponding grids, in addition to the relative cumulative frequency distribution of their values. Although MCD2000 statistically represents 1985, it shows the best agreement with the predicted 2000s or the 2010s. Thus, the time span of our prediction should be advanced forward by 20 years. Since the old mesh climate data (centered at 1970) is used as the initial condition for the prediction instead of the climate data of 1990, it is considered that the climatic change between 1970 and 1990 is not expressed.

収録刊行物

  • 雪氷

    雪氷 68 (2), 115-122, 2006

    公益社団法人 日本雪氷学会

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