Eastward Shift of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Anomaly in Decaying El Niño

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  • Yao HA
    College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
  • Zhong ZHONG
    College of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China ICGCR, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
  • Xiuqun YANG
    ICGCR, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China

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  • Eastward Shift of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Anomaly in Decaying El Nino

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 This study focuses on longitudinal evolution of tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) anomaly over the western North Pacific (WNP) from July to October in the El Niño decaying (EDC) years and its possible mechanisms. Results show that TCGF anomaly exhibits a dipole pattern with a negative center in the eastern WNP and a positive center in the western WNP. In particular, the mean position of negative (positive) anomaly shifts eastward from 130°E (120°E) in July to 160°E (145°E) in October. Moreover, the evolving feature of negative TCGF anomaly is exhibited more clearly. This evolution of TCGF anomaly largely determines the distribution of climatological TC kinetic energy anomaly, which also shifts eastward and persists throughout the EDC fall. Tropical Indian Ocean warming and equatorial central eastern Pacific cooling jointly modulates the large-scale atmospheric circulation and environmental conditions over the WNP, contributing to the eastward shift of TCGF anomaly during the EDC summer and fall. A better understanding of the evolution of TCGF anomaly could be beneficial for the improvement of the seasonal TC prediction over the individual regions over the WNP for the EDC years.

収録刊行物

  • 気象集誌. 第2輯

    気象集誌. 第2輯 91 (5), 597-608, 2013

    公益社団法人 日本気象学会

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