Trends and Interannual and Interdecadal Variations of Global Land Surface Air Temperature

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  • 全球陸上気温のトレンド、年々変動及び数十年変動の解析
  • 全球陸上気温のトレンド,年々変動及び数十年変動の解析〔英文〕
  • ゼンキュウ リクジョウ キオン ノ トレンド ネンネン ヘンドウ オヨビ スウ

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Abstract

Long-term trends and inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities of the global land air temperature are analyzed by using the 110-year time series data over 8 sub-regions. The global mean temperature exhibits a generally increasing trend during the 100 year period with a rate of about 0.54°C/(100 years). However, the temperature has inter-decadal variabilities, with the largest warming for the recent 20 years, but with a cooling trend during 1940-1970.<br>Spectral analysis of the air temperature shows that there exist three dominant time scales with period ranges of several years, 10-20 years, and longer than 30 years. 2-7-year-period variations over the tropical sub-regions are greatly affected by El Niño and Southern Oscilation (ENSO) cycles, but those over the extra-tropical sub-regions are not so affected by ENSO.<br>The 8-25-year band-pass-filtered variations have amplitudes of about 0.1°C-0.2°C. Their phases were nearly the same over the whole sub-regions before about 1920, but became different between different sub-regions after 1920. The phases of this component of the global mean temperature agree quite well with those of the sunspot numbers in recent years after about 1960, but they were nearly out of phase before about 1920.<br>The low-pass-filtered variations with periods longer than 30 years had a positive peak around 1930-1940 and negative peaks around 1890 and 1970. This component seems to contribute to the large warming during recent 10 years.

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