Development of a Submarine Landslide Risk Assessment Method Using Probabilistic Approach

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  • SATO Taichi
    Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R)
  • SUGINO Hideharu
    Regulatory Standard and Research Department, Secretariat of Nuclear Regulation Authority (S/NRA/R)

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  • 確率論的手法を用いた海底地すべり危険度判定手法の構築

Abstract

<p>Submarine landslides are well-known inducers of tsunami waves, and multiple studies are available in the literature on hazard assessment for tsunami waves caused by submarine landslides. In these works, changes in the values of physical properties of the ground (such as shear strength) obtained from drilling data were considered as uncertainties associated with the occurrence of submarine landslides to assess the risk of tsunamis; however, statistical variability in these variables was often ignored. In addition, the dispersion of a landslide's position and shape were considered as an arbitrary cross section, but its setting range was limited to the assumed cross section. Herein, a submarine landslide risk assessment method using probabilistic approach was developed to contribute to the development of probabilistic hazard assessment methods for detecting tsunamis triggered by submarine landslides. The proposed method considers the uncertainty of the ground's physical properties, the planar landslide occurrence position, and the moving direction; it was validated by creating a submarine landslide map for model waters.</p>

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