Socioeconomic Differences in Educational Expectation: Primary and Secondary Effects in International Context

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  • 教育期待の階層差生成過程に関する国際比較研究
  • 教育期待の階層差生成過程に関する国際比較研究 : 反事実的アプローチを用いた1次効果と2次効果の分解
  • キョウイク キタイ ノ カイソウサ セイセイ カテイ ニ カンスル コクサイ ヒカク ケンキュウ : ハン ジジツテキ アプローチ オ モチイタ 1ジ コウカ ト 2ジ コウカ ノ ブンカイ
  • ―反事実的アプローチを用いた1次効果と2次効果の分解―

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<p>There are two separate mechanisms in the creation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO): the association between students’ class backgrounds and their academic performance at school—primary effects—and the differences in the educational choices made by students of different social classes, conditional on their previous performance—secondary effects. This article starts by analyzing PISA 2003 data to address the relative influence of primary and secondary effects in class differentials in one crucial decision within Japanese educational system: that in which, after graduating from high school, students do, or do not, intend to proceed to higher education. And then, we investigate whether international variation of IEO overall and relative importance of these two kinds of effect can be accounted for by differences in the setup of national educational systems.</p><p>The estimation of primary and secondary effects is based on counterfactual analysis. This approach allows us to compare actual with counterfactual log-odds ratio and compute quantitative estimates of the relative importance of primary and secondary effects. The means and standard deviations of performance scores of one class are combined with the parameters of logistic curves of another class to produce a counterfactual, or synthesized, outcome. A hypothetical situation is deliberated where the performance distribution changes while choice characteristics remain the same and vice versa. Results show, for our cases, in Japan that secondary effects have accounted for a greater part of the inequality in educational expectation. Highly stratified systems with tracked educational pathways appear to lead to increasing primary effects. The association between the stratification of educational systems and the strengths of secondary effects is vague. As a whole, enhancing the degree of stratification shifts relative influence of IEO mechanisms from direct effects to indirect effects through differences in previous performance across social classes.</p>

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