FUTURE PROJECTION OF STORM SURGE HEIGHT AT THREE MAJOR BAYS IN JAPAN USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF TYPHOON IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
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- ARIYOSHI Nozomi
- 元京都大学大学院 工学研究科
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- MORI Nobuhito
- 京都大学 防災研究所
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 北西太平洋の台風の最大潜在強度を用いた３大湾における高潮偏差の将来変化予測
- ホクセイ タイヘイヨウ ノ タイフウ ノ サイダイ センザイ キョウド オ モチイタ 3ダイワン ニ オケル タカシオ ヘンサ ノ ショウライ ヘンカ ヨソク
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Abstract
This study developed an integrated model of long-term assessment for storm surge heights based on maximum potential intensity (MPI) of typhoon and conducted future change projections of climatological maximum potential storm surge height (MPSSH). We showed the impacts of atmospheric stability on MPSSH by applying the method to 2 types of climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF, the megaensemble projection. Sensitivity of MPSSH change at three major bays in Japan against SST change is about 0.12 m/°C in typhoon seasons, which is about 1/10 when considered SST rise only. Both mean and variance of future MPSSH will be much greater, especially in September and under higher RCP scenario.
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 74 (2), I_619-I_624, 2018
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
