AN ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO INUNDATION CAUSED BY LARGE-SCALE FLOODS BY SCGE MODEL

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  • SCGEモデルを用いた大規模洪水の経済被害推計
  • SCGE モデル オ モチイタ ダイキボ コウズイ ノ ケイザイ ヒガイ スイケイ

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Abstract

 Japan faces great risk of natural disasters and it is concerned that there will be other large-scale disasters which may cause fatal damage to important functions for maintaining administration as well as social and economic systems. In order to avoid such kind of situations, recently it is said to be important to make resilient national land. However, estimations of damage such as economic loss caused by large-scale floods have not been done yet, even though these are quite important to assess the validity of measures to promote National Resilience. Therefore, this study conducted estimations of economic loss due to inundation caused by large-scale floods in Tokyo, Osaka, and Tokai areas according to the expected floods scenarios by a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model. As a result of that, serious damage to the economy triggered by inundation in Tokyo, Osaka, and Tokai areas was estimated. The result suggests the great need of mitigation measures against large-scale floods.

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