METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE RAINFALL STANDARDS OF TRAFFIC REGULATION FOR SLOPE DISASTER ON EXPRESSWAYS

DOI Web Site 2 Citations 1 References
  • SAKURADANI Keiji
    西日本高速道路株式会社 関西支社 新名神大阪西事務所 工務課
  • MIZUTANI Daijiro
    東北大学 災害科学国際研究所
  • OBAMA Kengo
    大阪大学 大学院工学研究科 NEXCO西日本高速道路学共同研究講座
  • KAITO Kiyoyuki
    大阪大学 大学院工学研究科 地球総合工学専攻
  • ONJI Taku
    大阪大学大学院 工学研究科 地球総合工学専攻

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Other Title
  • 高速道路斜面災害に対する降雨時通行規制基準値の設定方法

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<p> On expressways, it is important to execute appropriate traffic regulations with coherent bases (i.e. results of disaster occurrence forecasting) for ensuring users’ safety against slope disaster caused by rainfall. In this study, the authors propose methodology for establishment of traffic regulation standards in consideration of the two types of risks: i) risk that slope disaster occurs when a traffic regulation is not executed, and ii) risk that slope disaster does not occur when a traffic regulation is executed. Specifically, the joint occurrence probability of slope disaster and rainfall are statistically formulated with the past slope disaster data and exogenous/endogenous data. Furthermore, the two types of risks are quantified with the joint occurrence probability, and an optimization model is formulated for determination of optimal regulation standards which minimize the sum of the two types of risks. Lastly, the effectiveness of the proposed methodology is discussed by using the actual slope disaster records in an expressway section.</p>

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