POTENTIAL EFFECT OF IRRIGATION AGAINST GRAIN PRODUCTION LOSS AND ITS COST IN DROUGHT CONDITION

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  • 灌漑による干ばつ時の穀物生産損失の低減効果とその費用に関する推計

Abstract

 Drought is one of natural disasters which affects production of grains and threatens food security, and irrigation is one of the effective countermeasure against it. As frequency and magnitude of drought may change in future warming climate, it is important to estimate potential capacity of drought mitigation by irrigation installation and its cost in the global scale for discussing suitable measure for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Here, we assess the potential effect of irrigation in terms of grain production loss under drought condition at the global scale using a production and circulation coupled model and estimate the required cost of irrigation installation based on an empirical unit cost function obtained from 406 project reports across the world. The model shows the highest potential to mitigate production loss in the south-eastern part of Australia, while that is small in the eastern part of the Unites States. We then investigated the feasibility of irrigation installation by comparing irrigation installation costs and gross domestic production (GDP) in each country. Our estimation shows that Suriname and Mauritania can afford to install additional irrigation instrument by themselves, while Armenia needs to take other options.

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