Analysis of the policy on the long-term evaluation of earthquake occurrence by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan: A case study on the implementation of uncertain scientific knowledge into earthquake disaster prevention policies

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  • 地震調査研究推進本部による地震発生の長期評価施策の分析――不確実性を伴う科学的知識の地震防災行政への使われ方の事例研究――
  • ジシン チョウサ ケンキュウ スイシン ホンブ ニ ヨル ジシン ハッセイ ノ チョウキ ヒョウカ シサク ノ ブンセキ : フカクジツセイ オ トモナウ カガクテキ チシキ ノ ジシン ボウサイ ギョウセイ エ ノ ツカワレ カタ ノ ジレイ ケンキュウ

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Abstract

<p>This paper aims to investigate the policy on the long-term evaluation of earthquake occurrence conducted by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. The purpose is to clarify whether the occurrence of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, which caused severe damages over wide areas through tsunami, was expected or not by the long-term evaluation before the earthquake. The minutes of the steering committee of HERP indicate that the routine method to calculate the stochastic probability of the earthquake occurrence failed to predict the earthquake. However, with the recent paleo-seismological findings that the Tohoku coastal regions were hit by tsunami several times during the past 3000 years, the HERP committee did realize that there might be another tsunami accompanied by large earthuuake in the future, but not confirm when because of little scientific clues available.</p>

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