CONSIDERATION OF EVACUATION STRATEGIES EFFECTIVE FOR REDUCING THE NUMBER OF STRANDED PEOPLE AT NURSERY HOMES IN CASE OF LARGE-SCALE FLOODS

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  • 大規模水害時の高齢者施設における人的被害の軽減効果を考慮した避難支援方策

Abstract

<p> In order to consider effective evacuation strategies for nursery homes (NHs) in case of large-scale floods, a rescue model was developed which can calculate the number of stranded people, concerning the triage of NH residents, transferring cycles, etc. Simulation for Ara river was conducted to compare the reduction effect between different evacuation priorities, start times, and rescue participation rates. There were cases where approximately 100 to 400 people were less stranded when NHs estimated to be inundated sooner were prioritized compared to when NHs close from rescue bases were prioritized. The results showed how strategic evacuation priorities, prompt decisions, and high rescue participation rates contribute to greatly reducing the number of NH residents being left in severe conditions.</p>

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