Lessons and prospects of research on herders’ adaptive and recovery behavior to natural disasters—case of <i>Dzud</i> in Mongolia—

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  • 自然災害への牧民の危機回避・回復行動に関する研究成果と今後の展望～モンゴル国のゾドを事例として～
  • シゼン サイガイ エ ノ ボクミン ノ キキ カイヒ ・ カイフク コウドウ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ セイカ ト コンゴ ノ テンボウ : モンゴルコク ノ ゾド オ ジレイ ト シテ

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<p>In Mongolia, the natural disaster dzud occurs regularly. Dzuds have adverse effects on mobile pastoralism, which is a key industry in Mongolia. This paper reviews previous articles based on empirical research on how Mongolian herders can avoid the effects of dzuds and how they can recover if they couldn’t be avoided. We focused the research on factors that need to be improved. As for avoidance, it has been shown in several articles that mobility is an effective way to mitigate the decline of livestock numbers due to dzuds. The feed, warm environment for livestock, and mutual support of herders have also been reported to be effective in mitigating the effects of dzuds. For example, older herders are easily affected by dzuds because they have difficulties with mobility and feed. In terms of recovery, herders’ households with a large number of livestock before the dzuds and households with assets such as gold were taking action to recover their livestock numbers. Households that could not recover after dzuds were raising an increasing number of female goats, which are more vulnerable to disasters, because of the increasing cashmere demand. In addition, some households lost their livestock in dzuds, left the rangelands, and worked in cities or mines, but there were household discords. However, with regard to avoidance, research on the destination of the movement has been delayed. Research on feed, etc., is also limited to specific areas. It is necessary to accumulate knowledge in more areas. With regard to recovery, there are fewer empirical studies than of avoidance. Also, compared to studies in Africa, the sample sizes and durations in Mongolia are shorter. Mongolia has an accumulation of livestock population data, so it is possible to utilize that and improve the size and period of the sample. Furthermore, there are many previous studies mainly on rangelands, but it is thought that more comprehensive analysis is necessary in the future as herders are moving back and forth between rangelands and cities. With the progress of these studies, mobility can be maintained, reliable resources and environment in the rangelands can be secured, and affected households will be able to maintain their living standards by going back and forth between cities and rangelands. It is considered that the nomadic society’s vulnerability to dzuds can be reduced.</p>

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