ANALYSIS OF IMPACTS OF CUTOFF AND TIMING OF REOPENING OF ARTERIAL ROADS BETWEEN REGIONS CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTER ON REGIONAL ECONOMY

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  • OHTA Shuhei
    千葉工業大学大学院 工学研究科 建築都市環境学専攻
  • SATO Tetsuji
    千葉工業大学 創造工学部 都市環境工学科

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Other Title
  • 自然災害による都市間道路の途絶・復旧時期が地域経済に及ぼす影響分析

Abstract

<p> In Japan, cutoff of roads between regions by natural disaster have sometimes occurred. In this paper, we developed a regional econometric model which is capable of evaluating time-series impacts of cutoff and restoration of arterial roads between regions on regional economy. The model considers the decrease in export as exogenous variables based on the assumption that cutoff of roads between regions decreases export. It can analyze the impact of cutoff of roads on regional potential productivity by decreasing the average working hour index and the rate of capital utilization index at the same rate as maximum decrease rate of import of raw materials. We also constructed the quarterly based empirical model for Wakayama Prefecture and simulated the impact of cutoff and timing of reopening of roads which connect with other cities on the regional economy assuming that Gobo City is isolated by cutoff of roads. As a result, it is indicated that the impact of cutoff of roads continues for a long time after reopening, early reopening alleviates the decrease in gross regional product by cutoff of roads for a long time, etc.</p>

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