Possibility of Explosive Occurrence of Unexpected Accidents in Aged Pipelines

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  • 経年パイプラインにおける突発事故の爆発的発生の可能性
  • 経年パイプラインにおける突発事故の爆発的発生の可能性 : 管体の機能劣化予測式に基づく評価と推定
  • ケイネン パイプライン ニ オケル トッパツ ジコ ノ バクハツテキ ハッセイ ノ カノウセイ : カンタイ ノ キノウ レッカ ヨソクシキ ニ モトズク ヒョウカ ト スイテイ
  • ―Evaluation and Estimation based on Predictive Equations for Life-span of Pipes―
  • ―管体の機能劣化予測式に基づく評価と推定―

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<p>  Establishment of planning and design method to appropriately predict degradation of performance of irrigation system and to ensure proper function preservation is required to maintain functions with high superiority of pipeline in the future. Based on yearly and cumulative number of unexpected accidents, predictive equations for Life-span were established. The accident ratio of the accident curve in the pipeline temporarily declines due to partial function preservation, the rise becomes gradual but the overall curve gradient is maintained. </p><p>  Therefore, with the passage of time, functional deterioration in most unrepaired sections becomes obvious, and when returning to the previous accident curve, accidents increase rapidly after 2010. Based on the accident estimation after 2014, it can be predicted that there is a possibility of an explosive accident in the aged pipeline.</p>

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