Estimation of PV Output and Forecasting of Real Load in a Distribution Line Interconnecting PV Generation

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  • Kanao Norikazu
    Engineering Research & Development Center, Hokuriku Electric Power Company
  • Ishimaru Masaaki
    Engineering Research & Development Center, Hokuriku Electric Power Company

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  • PVが連系された配電線のPV出力推定と実負荷の短時間予測
  • PV ガ レンケイ サレタ ハイデンセン ノ PV シュツリョク スイテイ ト ジツ フカ ノ タンジカン ヨソク

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Abstract

<p>Recently, a lot of photovoltaic (PV) generation systems have been penetrated in distribution power systems. It is important for the power system operators to know a total value of PV output and real load of a distribution line in real time. But the real load is unmeasurable while the PV systems are generating. This paper describes an estimation method of PV output and a forecasting method of real load in a distribution line using two types of Kalman filters with power flow data (P, Q) and solar radiation. These methods were examined for accuracy in a real distribution line in Hokuriku Electric Power Company. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for estimated PV output and 2-hour forecasted real load were about 7% and 10% error rate of total PV capacity through one year, respectively. These results show that these methods would be acceptable for power system operators because this method is simpler than the other methods that have been proposed in the past.</p>

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