Experimental Study of Information Influencing Evacuation Judgments in Danger of Flooding

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  • INABA Midori
    Graduated School of Information Systems, University of Electro-Communications
  • TANAKA Kenji
    Graduated School of Information Systems, University of Electro-Communications

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Other Title
  • 水害時の避難へのモチベーションに影響を及ぼす情報提示内容についての実験的検討
  • スイガイジ ノ ヒナン エ ノ モチベーション ニ エイキョウ オ オヨボス ジョウホウ テイジ ナイヨウ ニ ツイテ ノ ジッケンテキ ケントウ

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Abstract

<p>Residents have been reportedly sometimes hesitated to evacuate their home and affected from flooding. Such lower motivation for the evacuation is predicted especially when the duration between the danger forecasts and the beginning of the overflow may be relatively long compared to when the emergency evacuation is necessary. This study examined empirically what information would be added to the currently provided information in order to help the residents decide to evacuate in danger of overflows. In particular, we have focused on the case that the residents have time to prepare for the moving to the evacuation center.</p><p>In experiments, participants performed a hypothesized evacuation task. They were instructed to decide whether to evacuate or wait at home on the basis of the information on the monitor. In Experiment 1, two types of information were individually presented in addition to the evacuation instructions or directions, weather forecast, and river information. One was the predicted remaining time to evacuate in safe and the other was the probability of the evacuated residents in a local area. In Experiment 2, a graph of the time-series change of the evacuees probability was also employed as additional information. We compared the probability that the participants decided to evacuate.</p><p>As results, the additional presentation of the probability of the evacuated residents enhanced decisions to evacuate when the risk of flooding increased slowly. However, this promoting effect was restricted to the case that the evacuees probability rose fast. The predicted remaining time for the safe evacuation helped the participants to decide to evacuate only when the remaining time decreased fast along with the fast increase in risk of flooding. These findings imply that the additional information motivated the residents to evacuate readily, but it is necessary to consider the restrictions to provide each type of the information.</p>

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