Evaluation of Within-farm Transmission Dynamics of Bovine Coronavirus Disease Using a Mathematical Model

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  • 数理モデルを用いた牛コロナウイルス病の農場内流行動態解析
  • スウリ モデル オ モチイタ ギュウ コロナウイルスビョウ ノ ノウジョウ ナイ リュウコウ ドウタイ カイセキ

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Abstract

<p>We analyzed the within-farm transmission dynamics of bovine coronavirus disease (BCoVD) using a mathematical model and evaluated the vaccination coverage (VC) and outbreak prevention effect of isolation of symptomatic cattle. The estimated basic reproduction number (R0) were 8.00 (3.15‐16.0) and VC values were 0.875 (0.682‐0.937). The stochastic simulation predicted that isolating all symptomatic cattle, including mild symptomatic cattle, within 12 hours of onset prevents BCoVD outbreaks. In contrast, the stochastic simulation predicted that when mild symptomatic cattle were not isolated, BCoVD outbreaks could not be successfully controlled.</p>

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