Climate Change Effect Detection Method Developed Using River Level Data which are Less Affected by Dams and Urbanization

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  • WATANABE Manabu
    Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Department of Environment Systems
  • HIJIOKA Yasuaki
    Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Department of Environment Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
  • FUJII Minoru
    Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Department of Environment Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
  • NAKAJIMA Kenichi
    Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Department of Environment Systems National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

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  • ダムや都市化などの影響が限定された河川水位データを対象とした気候変動影響検出手法の開発
  • ダム ヤ トシカ ナド ノ エイキョウ ガ ゲンテイ サレタ カセン スイイ データ オ タイショウ ト シタ キコウ ヘンドウ エイキョウ ケンシュツ シュホウ ノ カイハツ

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Abstract

<p>　Because of increased heavy rainfall that is occurring along with climate change, some concern exists that damage caused by river flooding will spread. Countermeasures against damage are urgently needed. However, increased heavy rainfall along with climate change and the degree of current countermeasures differ depending on the river. The necessity of countermeasures and their degree require examination for each river. Therefore, it is necessary to detect effects of climate change and identify changes in risks for rivers. For that purpose, we developed a method of detecting climate change effects on river levels and changes in flood risk by selecting rivers to exclude, as much as possible, anthropogenic effects other than climate change. Specifically, from a water information system, we selected rivers that are unaffected by dams and stations upstream of the rivers to exclude urbanization effects. Then, we used Mann-Kendall tests to analyze trends for time-series analysis to ascertain whether higher water levels were recorded with the increased heavy rainfall and whether the annual maximum river level and the frequency of river levels at risk of flood were increasing. Results demonstrated that river levels have risen because of climate change effects in five of the seven target rivers. Flood risks also increased. Applying this method for each river, climate change effects on the river level were detected.</p>

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