中国の住宅価格にバブルは存在するか

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  • 王 佳
    九州大学大学院経済学研究院助教

書誌事項

タイトル別名
  • Can a bubble be identified in China’s housing prices?
  • 中国の住宅価格にバブルは存在するか : 省別パネルデータを用いた実証分析
  • チュウゴク ノ ジュウタク カカク ニ バブル ワ ソンザイ スル カ : ショウ ベツ パネルデータ オ モチイタ ジッショウ ブンセキ
  • An empirical analysis using provincial panel data
  • 省別パネルデータを用いた実証分析

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抄録

In this article, using panel data including 31 provinces in China from 1999 to 2015, I estimated the fundamental price of housing in China based on the fundamentals model. After that, I examined the cointegration relationship between the estimated fundamental price and the actual price of the house. And examined whether there was a bubble in the actual price of the house in China. As a result of the panel cointegration test, there is a cointegration relationship between the actual price and the fundamental price of the house at the national level, northeast region, northern coast, south coast, middle Yellow river area, middle Yangtze area, southwest area, and northwest area. The results show that in these areas, or at the national level, rising house prices are not bubbles. On the other hand, there is no cointegration relationship between the actual price of the house and the fundamental price in the eastern coastal area. The actual price of the house deviates from the fundamental price, and there is a bubble in housing prices in the eastern coastal area. Furthermore, according to the result of the cointegration test of each province, a bubble may exist in housing prices in eight provinces such as Liaoning province, Hebei province, Shandong province, Jiangsu province, Zhejiang province, Hainan province, Henan province, and Shaanxi province. On the other hand, it also became clear that soaring housing prices in other provinces cannot be called bubbles. According to the results of the above panel cointegration analysis, the following policy implications can be derived. That is, the bubble of housing prices in China is a regional phenomenon, not a national one. Therefore, for housing prices in China, rather than adopting uniform policies across China, it is better to take into account regional differences and take into account regional policies that are appropriate for each region.

収録刊行物

  • 中国経済研究

    中国経済研究 3 (1), 28-48, 2019

    中国経済経営学会（旧　中国経済学会、中国経営管理学会）

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