GLOBAL STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WAVE CHANGES UNDER WARMING CLIMATE FROM PAST TO FUTURE
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- SHIMURA Tomoya
- 京都大学 防災研究所
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- PRINGLE William J.
- Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory
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- MORI Nobuhito
- 京都大学 防災研究所
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- MIYASHITA Takuya
- 京都大学 防災研究所
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- YOSHIDA Kohei
- 気象庁気象研究所 全球大気海洋研究部
Bibliographic Information
- Other Title
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- 過去から温暖化条件下の将来へのシームレスな全球高潮・高波評価
- カコ カラ オンダンカ ジョウケン カ ノ ショウライ エ ノ シームレス ナ ゼン キュウ タカシオ ・ タカナミ ヒョウカ
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Abstract
<p> For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate climate change related future changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surge and ocean waves, in addition to sea level rise. In this study, global storm surge and ocean wave simulations forced by hourly surface winds and pressure from global climate model simulations were conducted. The spatial pattern in the long-term trend of annual maximum sea surface height and wave height from the past to the warmer future is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone frequency. In the western North Pacific, future tropical cyclone frequencies are projected to decrease and the annual maximum sea surface height and wave height show a decreasing trend (-20cm/100-yr・-200cm/100-yr). Although very intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, very extreme storm surge and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.</p>
Journal
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- Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
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Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) 77 (2), I_949-I_954, 2021
Japan Society of Civil Engineers