東アジアの域内貿易構造変化と貿易額の増加

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タイトル別名
  • Changes in Intra-regional Trade Structure and Trade Volume Growth in East Asia
  • ヒガシアジア ノ イキ ナイ ボウエキ コウゾウ ヘンカ ト ボウエキガク ノ ゾウカ

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<p>Since the 21st century, parallel to its economic growth, the industrial structure of East Asia has been changing. This is due to the changes in the intra-regional division of labor, and the increase in direct investment and technology transfer. The sophistication of supply chains and the closeness of networks have become the driving force behind the improvements in manufacturing processes. Therefore, this study focuses on the structural changes in intra-regional trade brought about by three factors: 1) the changes in the intra-regional division of labor in East Asian countries and 2) the increase in direct investment and 3) the increase in the intra-regional trade. The first hypothesis suggests that the increase in the share of vertical intra-industry trade between two East Asian countries will increase the total trade volume between the two countries. In addition, after the Plaza Accord of 1985, there was a rush of Japanese companies entering East Asia, especially Thailand. These Japanese companies entered East Asia to replace their production bases because of the strength of the yen. In the 2000s, Thailand became a hub for international production networks, known as Thailand plus one. They expanded in response to the risk that China posed. As a result, the bilateral vertical intra-industry trade shares of Thailand and China, which had both become the hubs of international production networks, have increased, and the bilateral trade value of each of the two countries is also thought to have increased. The second hypothesis is that the increase in the bilateral vertical intra-industry trade share in East Asia increases the total trade volume between the two countries. This increase is particularly pronounced in Thailand and China. The results of the analysis support the first hypothesis, as the increase in the bilateral vertical intra-industry trade share of East Asian countries is statistically significantly “positive” regarding the increase in total trade value between the two countries. In addition, the results of the cross-sectional analysis are statistically significantly “positive” with regards to China for 20 years, from 1999 to 2018 and for the first 10 years, from 1999 to 2008. Moreover, it is statistically significantly “positive” for Thailand over an entire period, thereby supporting the second hypothesis.</p>

収録刊行物

  • アジア研究

    アジア研究 67 (4), 1-16, 2021-10-31

    一般財団法人 アジア政経学会

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