Debt Service - Income Nexus: A Cointegration Analysis of Indonesia
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This paper analyzes long term and short term relationships between external debt service and income in Indonesia. These relationships use an extended production function model that measured GDP as a function of debt service ratio (DSR), capital stock, labor and human capital in which all data are represented by constant Rupiah. Applying cointegration analysis of time series model from 1980-2005, we show that Indonesia faces a debt overhang problem in the long run since increasing the external debt service ratio slows economic growth. One percent increases in (1 + DSR), elasticity of GDP will decrease by 0.1 percent. Labor and capital stock are the main variables supporting GDP in the long run. Moreover, elasticity of income to human capital is relatively small at 0.02 percent. The results of the short run equation show that change in capital stock is a significant variable in boosting economic growth. However, the variable of external debt repayment over total export shows insignificant values in relation to depressing GDP. A positive shock of one standard deviation of the change of debt service over total export makes the change of income stable in the short run.
収録刊行物
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- 国際開発研究フォーラム
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国際開発研究フォーラム 37 77-98, 2008-09-16
名古屋大学大学院国際開発研究科
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390290699599263872
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- NII論文ID
- 110006826910
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- NII書誌ID
- AN10436655
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- ISSN
- 21899126
- 13413732
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- HANDLE
- 2237/10584
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- NDL書誌ID
- 9650694
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- 本文言語コード
- en
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
- IRDB
- NDL
- CiNii Articles
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- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用可