日本経済におけるオークン法則の有用性 : デフレ脱却の道筋との関連で《特別論文》

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  • 日本経済におけるオークン法則の有用性 : デフレ脱却の道筋との関連で
  • ニホン ケイザイ ニ オケル オークン ホウソク ノ ユウヨウセイ : デフレ ダッキャク ノ ミチスジ ト ノ カンレン デ

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While over the past several decades the Okun's law has been applied to the Japanese economy in various ways, a few attempts had been made to create time series of potential output and GDP gap by utilizing the Okun's law. One reason behind this may be a seeming instability of the Okun's law coefficient in Japan. Furthermore there are many economics professors and researchers who regard the Okun's law as too volatile to get reliable evidence for analyzing important topics like GDP gap, potential output, and unemployment. However, the seeming instability of the Okun's coefficient can be removed by appropriately taking into account a change in potential growth and important structural changes during the estimation period. This paper aims at showing the usefulness of the Okun's law in the Japanese economy for analyzing price development and considering ways to overcome deflation by demonstrating how accurately can Okun's-lawbased GDP gap follow inflation/deflation development in the past 30 years.

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