Meteorological conditions for complete ice cover on Lake Mashu in Hokkaido, Japan using observational data from 1974 to 2021 and prediction of freeze-up date in February, 2021

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  • 摩周湖の全面結氷条件の解明およびそれに基づく2021年2月の全面結氷日の予測
  • マシュウコ ノ ゼンメン ケッピョウ ジョウケン ノ カイメイ オヨビ ソレニ モトズク 2021ネン 2ガツ ノ ゼンメン ケッピョウビ ノ ヨソク

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<p>The freezing conditions of Lake Mashu from 1974 to 2021 were investigated at the nearest observatory. We found that Lake Mashu was completely covered by ice 27 times during the period. The complete ice coverage rate was 56.3 %. We also found that Lake Mashu was completely covered by ice at 95.5 % when the average monthly air temperature in February at the nearest meteorological station (Kawayu AMeDAS) decreased below －8.9 °C. When the yearly minimum air temperature of simple moving averages using 61 average daily temperatures at the second nearest meteorological station (Teshikaga AMeDAS) decreased below －7.8 °C, we also detected the complete coverage of Lake Mashu. The accumulated negative average daily air temperature for the complete ice coverage condition is not constant and depends on the air temperature of the previous summer. Using the relationship, we can forecast the freeze-up date of Lake Mashu in 2021. The forecast date was February 24, 2021 based on the forecast on September 1, 2020. We can also forecast the dates as February 10 and February 8, 2021 based on the forecasts on January 1 and January 16, 2021, respectively. Lake Mashu was completely covered by ice on February 14 in 2021, with the forecast errors of ＋8, －4, and －6 days for the respective forecasts. Thus, the prediction is achieved within about±1 week. Because the average monthly air temperature in February increases in this region, the complete ice coverage percentage of Lake Mashu will decrease in the future.</p>

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