為替制度改革下における人民元ボラティリティと中国の対外輸出

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  • RMB Exchange Rate Volatility and Chinese Exports under the Exchange Rate System Reform
  • カワセ セイド カイカク カ ニ オケル ジンミン モト ボラティリティ ト チュウゴク ノ タイガイ ユシュツ

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抄録

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of RMB volatility on China’s export with a special emphasis on the impacts of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime implemented on July 21, 2005. We estimated two types of volatility measures (one based on the ARCH model and the other the usual standard deviation) utilizing monthly real effective exchange rate data from January 2002 through December 2011 and examined both short-run and long-run effects of this volatility on each specific export sector with an ARDL approach. The results indicate that China’s exports are not affected by the RMB exchange rate volatility. On the other hand, the level of the exchange rate has a significant impact on Chinese exports (especially on industrial products export) during the reform period.

収録刊行物

  • 中国経済研究

    中国経済研究 10 (2), 1-20, 2013

    中国経済経営学会（旧　中国経済学会、中国経営管理学会）

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