Predictive Value Analysis of Risk Score Calculation of Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease from Annual Health Checkup Data

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  • Izawa Hiromi
    Depart. Human Sciences, Aomori University of Health and Welfare
  • Komada Ai
    Graduate School of Health Sciences, ibid, Aomori University of Health and Welfare
  • Yamada Masashi
    Depart. Human Sciences, Aomori University of Health and Welfare
  • Ohyama Hirofumi
    Depart. Welfare Sciences, Aomori University of Health and Welfare
  • Fukuda Makoto
    Depart. Insurance for Advanced Age, Aomori Prefecture
  • Sagai Masaru
    Depart. Human Sciences, Aomori University of Health and Welfare Graduate School of Health Sciences, ibid, Aomori University of Health and Welfare

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  • 国保レセプトと住民基本健康診断データを用いた「脳卒中」と「虚血性心疾患」のリスクスコア計算法の的中度の比較
  • コクホ レセプト ト ジュウミン キホン ケンコウ シンダン データ オ モチイタ ノウソッチュウ ト キョケツセイ シンシッカン ノ リスクスコア ケイサンホウ ノ テキチュウド ノ ヒカク

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Abstract

<p>　The aim of this study is to clarify which methods are predictive values to calculate risk score of stroke or coronary heart disease from annual health checkup data. Patients (case group) with stroke or coronary heart disease were collected from receipts of national health insurance in one city and four towns in Aomori prefecture at April 2006. Their risk scores were calculated from annual health checkup data by using 3 kinds of methods for stroke and 6 kinds of methods for coronary heart disease. Healthy persons (control group) were collected from the persons accepted annual health checkup in A city at 2006. Their risk scores were calculated from the checkup data as same as case group. Determination of predictive values in each calculation method of risk score was done by ROC analysis, and area under ROC carve (AUC) was calculated and compared.</p><p>　The prediction tool of stroke risk developed by Ibaraki prefecture was shown to have the highest predictive value for both of stroke (AUC=0.849) and coronary heart disease (AUC=0.859).</p><p>　The reasons why this tool is the most suitable may be due to the evidence which this tool is constituted from many items (17 items) determined in annual health checkups.</p><p>　From these results,it is shown that there is validate and avalable method to select high risk persons of stroke or coronary heart disease from annual health checkup data.</p>

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