Contextual Effects and Fertility Differences between Okinawa Prefecture and Mainland Japan

<p>Total fertility rates (TFRs) in Okinawa prefecture have remained between 1.7 and 1.9 since 1990, although those in mainland Japan have drifted below 1.6. Why have fertility rates in Okinawa prefecture been higher than those in mainland Japan?</p><p>We investigated four issues related to marital fertility in Okinawa prefecture using retrospective microdata, primarily from our 2008 and 2009 Okinawan Survey on Marriage, Childbirth and Family, and the Fourth National Survey on Family conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2008. The first issue is the reason why currently married women living in Okinawa prefecture have higher fertility levels than those in mainland Japan; the difference remains after controlling for compositional differences in population characteristics. The other three issues emphasize the critical role of the Okinawan social context, in which family values and norms are dominant. The second issue focuses on the family size desired by married women in Okinawa prefecture, which is different from those in mainland Japan. The third issue is the flexibility in the order of marriage, conception, and childbirth in Okinawa. The fourth issue deals with family formation norms, where a son is preferred; this leads to a distinctive fertility pattern in Okinawa prefecture.</p><p>The main results of our study can be summarized as follows. First, marital fertility differences were found between Okinawa prefecture and mainland Japan. Married women aged 40–49 years who had been married for more than 15 years in Okinawa prefecture had 2.5–3.1 children on average, which is 0.4–1.0 more than those in mainland Japan. These differences were confirmed when controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. Second, the difference in ideal family size is related to marital fertility differences. In Okinawa prefecture, a three-child family is the prevailing ideal among married women, while a two-child family is the prevailing ideal among those in mainland Japan. Third, the proportion of married women who became pregnant before marriage is higher in Okinawa prefecture than in mainland Japan, and married women who first became pregnant before marriage had more children than those who became pregnant afterward. Fourth, the distinctive norm in Okinawa prefecture based on a patrilineal principle of family formation has a pronatalist effect on the behavior of married women. Hence, we conclude that the distinctive fertility behavior of married women in the Okinawan social context can explain the higher TFRs as compared with mainland Japan. Finally, we discuss the changes in the Okinawan social context and implications for future fertility rates in the prefecture.</p>