The Consequences of Elections under Authoritarianism:

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Other Title
  • 権威主義体制下の選挙とその帰結
  • ―抗議運動を抑制する選挙結果の実証分析
  • Empirical Analysis of Election Results to Prevent Post-Election Protest

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<p>  What factors determine whether an election triggers a protest that shakes the government under authoritarian regimes? To answer this question, I focused not on electoral fraud, but on the election results, i.e., the margins of victory for incumbents. This is because the margin of victory is thought to affect the subjective probability of success of the protest held by the opposition parties and their supporters. If the election results show that there is a large margin between the opposition and the ruling party, i.e., a difference in support, mobilization, and organization, then the opposition parties and their supporters are expected to judge the probability of success of the protest as low and refrain from protesting. In line with this expectation, the results of a quantitative analysis of national elections held from 1946 to 2010 under authoritarianism revealed that even after controlling for the degree of electoral fraud, the widening of the vote share gap has the effect of preventing the occurrence of protest. The effect of the margins of victory was confirmed to be robust through analysis with another fraud variable, another protests variable, and conditioned on the autonomy of the election management body.</p>

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