7-3-1　An Analysis on the consensus building of geothermal development with game theory and an agent-based simulation

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  • 7-3-1　ゲーム理論とAgent-based Simulationを用いた地熱発電開発の社会受容性に関する分析

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<p>Japan is one of the most promising countries for geothermal power generation because of its third-largest geothermal potential in the world with 23.47 GW. However, the domestic geothermal development has lagged for the past 25 years, and one of the primary reasons is oppositions from local stakeholders. Hence, consensus building with local stakeholders will be of great importance for further geothermal development in the future in Japan. This research applied game theory and an agent-based simulation to invent a model of consensus building and to conduct quantitative analysis of consensus building on geothermal development. This research also aimed at verifying a hypothesis that risk-reductive measures for hot spa owners are more effective than benefit-increasing ones to promote consensus building of geothermal development. The simulation results supported the proposed hypothesis under specific conditions. Further work is required to improve the invented model so that it can analyze actual geothermal cases.</p>

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