Analysis of CO₂ Emission Pathways of Thailand to Achieve Carbon Neutrality 2050 Using AIM Model

<p>The trend of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Thailand is a matter of concern, demanding ambitious mitigation efforts beyond 2030 and even before then to contribute towards meeting the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement of staying within a 1.5°C temperature rise. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions form the major part of the total GHG emissions in Thailand. This study aims to explore the energy, environmental and macroeconomic impacts of limiting CO₂ emissions during 2010–2050 for the underlying target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. This study has developed a recursive dynamic Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for Thailand which is soft-linked with the AIM/Enduse model. In addition to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the study has formulated two different CO₂-mitigation scenarios, each indicating a carbon-neutrality pathway towards 2050. Results indicate that Thailand should put more effort into mitigation actions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Expansion of renewable-energy-based technologies, improvement of end-use energy efficiency, fuel-switching and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in both the power and industrial sectors are identified as important mitigation measures for Thailand in curbing CO₂ emissions by 2050. The results show that the introduction of such mitigation measures would provide CO₂ emission reductions, but at the expense of economic losses. The price of CO₂ mitigation was found to vary from 220 to 332 US dollars per ton of CO₂ (tCO₂) in 2050 under the two carbon-neutrality scenarios.</p>