Risk Analysis of Physique Development in Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake

<p>　Many earthquake disasters have occurred in Japan since World War II, but the risk to physical development at those times has been analyzed. In a previous study the authors conducted a risk analysis for physical development in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, and reported the effects on the physical development of children. However, other earthquakes have also occurred in postwar Japan. In this study, continuing on from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, we applied the wavelet interpolation model to data for growth in physique from age 6 to 17 based on the Annual Reports of School Health Statistics Research in Niigata Prefecture to analyze the risk to physique from the Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake. We determined whether there was a slowing trend in maximum peak velocity (MPV) in height from the derived secular trends for age at MPV of physique, and analyzed the risk to physical development from earthquakes due to the occurrence of a delay in the age at MPV of physique. The results showed no slowing of the trend for earlier maturation in the age at MPV for height in boys and girls and weight in girls was observed in Niigata Prefecture, but a slight slowing of that trend was observed in the age at MPV of weight in boys. We conjecture that the risks to physical development differ depending on the scale of the earthquake disaster.</p>