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- 伊勢田 哲治
- 京都大学文学研究科
書誌事項
- タイトル別名
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- <Memorial Articles>The Use of Subjective Probability in the IPCC Reports and Translucent-Boxing
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In the IPCC assessment reports on climate change, the authors use language of confidence and likelihood in the main conclusions such as whether global warming is progressing or whether the warming is caused by human influences. The usage of such language has been scrutinized in detail and every assessment report adds some sophistication in the language. As to likelihood, qualitative expressions like ‘virtually certain’ are accompanied by numeral interpretations like ‘99-100 percent’. This case is very interesting in that scientists themselves seem to express subjective probability consciously. One of the reasons why such language is called for is that the IPCC assessment reports are intended for non-experts, rather than experts inside of the research community. In this paper, I examine the relationship between confidence and likelihood in IPCC assessment reports and what Bayesian philosophers has called subjective probability. Then, I propose the notion of ‘translucent-boxing’ as a role of such subjective probability language in science communication. At the end of the paper, I also make proposal for a better language of confidence and likelihood in IPCC assessment reports from this point of view.
収録刊行物
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- 科学哲学科学史研究
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科学哲学科学史研究 17 25-44, 2023-03-31
京都大学文学部科学哲学科学史研究室
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詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1390298975427799424
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- NII書誌ID
- AA12164361
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- DOI
- 10.14989/286703
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- HANDLE
- 2433/286703
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- ISSN
- 18839177
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- 本文言語コード
- ja
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- データソース種別
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- JaLC
- IRDB
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- 抄録ライセンスフラグ
- 使用可