A METHOD FOR MUNICIPALITY TO PLAN ISSUING EVACUATION INFORMATION FOR FLOOD RISK CONSIDERING IMPACT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE

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  • 気候変動進行時に起こりうる大雨による洪水リスクを考慮した避難情報発令の事前検討

Abstract

<p> In recent years, there has been an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall disasters, leading to floods. However, there is a lack of established methods for considering disaster responses, including evacuation, at the regional and watershed levels while accounting for the impacts of climate change. The objective of this study was to develop a method for evaluating the issuance of evacuation information in municipalities, specifically in response to heavy rainfall events that may occur during climate change progression. We proposed a method for generating flood scenarios at the regional level based on climate projections provided to a municipality, and using these scenarios to issue evacuation information. As a result of applying this exercise method in Obihiro City, Hokkaido, the municipality consider the specific timing and areas for issuing evacuation information in response to unprecedented-scale flood scenarios predicted by the climate projection database. This approach facilitated discussions on appropriate responses, such as the issuance of evacuation information, for similar heavy rain and flood events.</p>

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