PRACTICAL UTILIZATION OF ENSEMBLE RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR KUROBE DAM OPERATION AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON BASIN

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  • 実用性を考慮した黒部ダムへのアンサンブル降雨予測の活用方法検討および水系への影響評価

Abstract

<p> Because of the recent increase in heavy rainfall, it is expected for the hydropower dams to not only increase a power generation amount but also to expand the water storage capacity for flood management by discharging the stored water earlier than the flooding using the information of long-term ensemble rainfall predictions. However, there are not many studies discussing the practical use of ensemble rainfall forecast considering the operational situations of the dam and power generation, nor studies evaluating the effect on the whole water basin including the downstream. In this study, we discussed the practical method of using the ensemble rainfall forecast for the effective dam operation, and aimed to suggest the method to control the stored water for power generation in advance to the flooding and to expand the water storage capacity. We tried to predict the flooding 7–13 days before by using the ensemble forecast for June and July, and evaluated the effect on the dam operation of Kurobe and the downstream two dams when using the current prediction accuracy. As a result, in 2020 when ineffective discharge actually occurred, we were able to confirm the increase in the power generation due to the reduction in the amount of ineffective discharge.</p>

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