Emergence of Future Sea-Level Pressure Patterns in Recent Summertime East Asia

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<p>Recent year-to-year and long-term climate variabilities during 1980 – 2020 were investigated using the Japanese 55-year reanalysis dataset (JRA-55) to assess the robustness of and uncertainties in future sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns for summertime East Asia due to global warming, which were obtained in a previous study by an inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the multi-model future projections in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). One major finding is that the future robust SLP pattern emerges with a significant trend in the recent long-term variability consistent with the CMIP6 future projection. A few of the future uncertain patterns also display significant trends recently, but against the future projection means. The year-to-year variability of the patterns tends to make the polarized extreme summer SLP variations through the superposition with the long-term trends.</p><p>The second EOF pattern reflects low- and high-SLP anomalies in northern and southern East Asia, respectively, which is a robust future SLP pattern as its future appearance is predicted by almost all CMIP6 models. While the pattern appears in the summer following an El Niño winter, the significant trend in the recent long-term variability is created similarly to the CMIP6 future projection by recent warming over northern continents and seas.</p><p>The other EOFs are the uncertain future SLP patterns as the future polarities depend on the CMIP6 projection model. The first and third patterns represent a strengthened high-pressure anomaly and a weakened southerly wind pattern over East Asia, respectively. They show small linear trends in the magnitude consistent with the small future changes. The high-ranked patterns display long-term decreases against each future ensemble mean. The trends in the uncertain patterns are attributed to the weak and reverse surface warming distribution over the tropical oceans in the recent climate change compared with the future change.</p>

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  • 気象集誌. 第2輯

    気象集誌. 第2輯 102 (2), 265-283, 2024

    公益社団法人 日本気象学会

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